The UK government now expects AI to add £55bn to £140bn to the economy by 2030. Its central estimate is £120bn. Its AI Opportunities Action Plan put the gain at £400bn, and AI minister Kanishka Narayan has now confirmed that Google commissioned the report behind that number.

Narayan gave both figures in a written parliamentary answer on 26 October. He became the UK's first cabinet-level AI minister in July. Dr Ben Spencer, the Conservative shadow AI minister, had asked what evidence sat behind the plan's £400bn claim.

“The £400 billion figure was drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First,” Narayan wrote.

He said the government had since made its own assessment. It found that AI adoption and data investment could add 0.4 to 1.3 percentage points to UK productivity growth.

“These estimates are hugely uncertain, but this would be the equivalent of adding £55-140 billion to UK GVA in 2030,” he wrote.

GVA, or gross value added, measures the value of what an economy produces. The answer did not withdraw the £400bn figure.

Where the £400bn came from

Google published the higher number in July 2023. It came from an economic impact report that the consultancy Public First compiled. The report said that “under the right conditions”, AI could create over £400bn in value for the UK by 2030.

Tech investor Matt Clifford wrote the action plan, which the government published in January 2025.

The government's lower range comes from its own model. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology sets it out in an explainer for its AI Skills Boost. The model runs three scenarios, for slow, medium and rapid adoption, using OECD productivity estimates.

Ben Gartside reported for WIRED that this is the first time on record the government has set the two figures side by side. It is also the first time it has said Google commissioned the report. WIRED found that Skills England still published the £400bn figure months after ministers had the lower one.

Slow adoption, and calls for scrutiny

Public First, now called PF Global, told WIRED that its 2023 model assumed faster adoption than the government now expects. Its current central estimate for 2030 is much closer to the government's figure, it said, with more growth after that. The firm also said it made its own judgements in that research.

Conservative peer Lord Holmes of Richmond told WIRED he asked ministers where the figure came from in January 2025. He got no reply, he said.

Dame Chi Onwurah chairs the Commons science and technology committee. She told WIRED that overstating what technology can deliver risks undermining the case for change. Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute told WIRED that independent experts should test such forecasts, and that the government should measure the promised gains.

Spencer has kept asking. On 4 November, Narayan answered a follow-up question from him by pointing back to an earlier answer on AI skills. The same week, Narayan warned that a serious cyber breach in the UK is “extremely likely”.